Fed Paper Finds Elevated Probability of Recession - 23 iunie 2022

The U.S. economy faces elevated risks of a recession over the next one to two years due to rising imbalances in markets for goods and services, including labor, according to a new research paper from a Federal Reserve economist.

The paper finds slightly more than a 50% chance of a recession over the next four quarters and a two-thirds probability of a downturn over the next two years, according to various models analyzed by Michael Kiley, a senior central bank economist, in a report published Tuesday.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-paper-finds-elevated-probability-of-recession-11655900645